Qingdao Youth Island vs Dalian Zhixing Predictions
Super League · China
Qingdao Youth Island
Full Time
0 - 4
AI predicted 1 - 1
Dalian Zhixing
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Match Result
7.8/10Dalian Zhixing Dismantle Qingdao Youth Island with Ruthless 4-0 Away Win
Dalian Zhixing delivered a commanding performance at the Guzhenkou University Sports Center, thrashing Qingdao Youth Island 4-0 in a one-sided Super League clash. The visitors struck early and never looked back, opening the scoring in the 7th minute before adding three more in a dominant second half. Qingdao, despite enjoying 57% possession, struggled to create clear chances and were repeatedly undone by Dalian’s incisive attacking play. Dalian’s clinical edge was evident throughout, firing 19 shots with 8 on target compared to Qingdao’s 12 attempts and just 2 on target. The home side’s frustrations boiled over with three yellow cards, while Dalian kept their composure, maintaining defensive solidity and punishing Qingdao on the break. The result underlines Dalian Zhixing’s credentials as a force to be reckoned with this season, while Qingdao are left searching for answers after a humbling defeat.
😅 AI Prediction Report
CLOSE BUT NO CIGARPredicted
1 - 1
Actual
0 - 4
💰 Bet Results0/2 hit
Key Moments
7' — Goal
Dalian Zhixing open the scoring, immediately seizing momentum and putting Qingdao on the back foot.
70' — Goal
Dalian double their lead, capitalizing on Qingdao’s defensive disorganization.
76' — Goal
Dalian Zhixing make it three, effectively sealing the result with a ruthless counter.
87' — Goal
Dalian add a fourth late on, underlining their dominance and completing the rout.
Various' — Yellow Cards
Qingdao receive three yellow cards as frustration mounts, while Dalian pick up two.
Qingdao Youth Island
Qingdao Youth Island started brightly, controlling possession with 57% of the ball, but failed to translate their dominance into meaningful chances. Their 12 shots yielded only 2 on target, a testament to their lack of cutting edge in the final third. Defensive lapses proved costly, as they conceded early and then capitulated under Dalian’s second-half onslaught. The midfield struggled to contain Dalian’s creative players, and frustration set in, reflected by three yellow cards. Despite fielding a 4-2-3-1 formation designed for balance, Qingdao looked vulnerable in transition and lacked cohesion in attack. The result leaves them with much to ponder, particularly in tightening up defensively and finding greater attacking impetus.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Dalian Zhixing
Dalian Zhixing put on a clinical display, making the most of their 43% possession with 19 shots and 8 on target. Their 4-2-3-1 formation provided a solid base, allowing their attacking midfielders to exploit gaps in the Qingdao defense. The early goal set the tone, and Dalian’s tactical discipline ensured they remained compact, springing forward with pace and precision. Their defensive unit absorbed pressure well, while the midfield orchestrated swift transitions. Three second-half goals showcased their ability to capitalize on Qingdao’s desperation, and their overall composure was reflected in conceding only two yellow cards.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Both sides lined up in a 4-2-3-1 formation, but Dalian Zhixing executed their game plan with far greater efficiency. Qingdao’s emphasis on possession saw them control the ball for long spells, but their build-up was often slow and predictable, allowing Dalian to remain compact and spring forward on the break. Dalian’s midfield, led by Nicolae Stanciu, pressed intelligently and transitioned quickly, exploiting the spaces left by Qingdao’s advancing full-backs. Set pieces were evenly matched with three corners apiece, but Dalian’s superior movement and directness in open play proved decisive. Substitutions and tactical tweaks from Qingdao failed to stem the tide, as Dalian’s organization and sharpness in front of goal made the difference.
Turning Point
The second goal in the 70th minute, which broke Qingdao’s resistance and opened the floodgates for Dalian’s late surge.
Man of the Match
Frank Acheampong
A constant menace up front, involved in the scoring and instrumental in Dalian’s attacking fluidity.
Qingdao Youth Island vs Dalian Zhixing: Match Preview
Qingdao Youth Island approach this fixture sitting fifth in the table, just two points behind second-placed Dalian Zhixing, and remain unbeaten at home across 13 matches (5 wins, 8 draws). Their recent run is defined by draws—four in the last five—and a narrow 2-0 home win over Shandong Luneng. Dalian Zhixing, meanwhile, have found momentum with two straight wins and no defeats in their last five league outings, but their away record remains a concern with seven losses in 13 on the road.
The statistical matchup is shaped by Qingdao Youth Island's defensive discipline at home (0.69 goals conceded per home game, 30.8% clean sheet rate overall) against a Dalian Zhixing attack that averages 1.15 goals per away match but concedes two per away outing. Both sides have struggled to produce high-scoring games: Qingdao Youth Island's season over 2.5 goals rate is just 34.6%, and their last five have averaged 1.6 total goals. Dalian Zhixing's away matches are more open (over 2.5 in 57.7% overall), but their recent games have tightened up, with only one of the last five seeing more than two goals. Set pieces and discipline are unlikely to tilt the balance, as both teams average under 4 cards and under 4 corners per match in their last five.
Given these underlying rates, the model projects a cautious, low-tempo contest with limited clear chances. Qingdao Youth Island's unbeaten home record and Dalian's away frailty suggest a draw is the most likely outcome, with a 1-1 scoreline favoured by the Poisson distribution. The likeliest deviation would come from a defensive lapse or set-piece goal, but the overall goal environment remains subdued.
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Expected goals · model says 1.20
Expected goals · model says 1.05
Over 2.5 Goals
39%
BTTS: Yes
45%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-0 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Qingdao Youth Island vs Dalian Zhixing Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Qingdao Youth Island vs Dalian Zhixing that most previews miss.
- 1Qingdao Youth Island have drawn 62% of their home matches (8 of 13), the highest rate among the league's top five.
- 2Dalian Zhixing concede exactly 2.00 goals per away game, but have tightened up recently, allowing just 0.6 per game in their last five overall.
- 3Only two of the last ten combined matches for these sides have produced more than two goals.
Who do you think wins: Qingdao Youth Island vs Dalian Zhixing?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Qingdao Youth Island vs Dalian Zhixing(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Both teams average below 1.5 goals scored and conceded per game over the season, and Qingdao Youth Island have seen under 2.5 goals in 65% of their matches (season over 2.5%: 34.62%).
Read more ↓
Match Result: Draw
Qingdao Youth Island have drawn 8 of 13 home games and 14 overall this season, while Dalian Zhixing have 3 draws in 13 away; the underlying rates point to a high draw probability (36%).
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More Super League Predictions
The Case For This Qingdao Youth Island vs Dalian Zhixing Prediction
A statistical deadlock looms between Qingdao Youth Island's defensive solidity at home and Dalian Zhixing's inconsistent but occasionally potent attack. With both sides averaging just over a goal per game and Qingdao Youth Island unbeaten at home, the numbers point to a low-scoring, closely contested affair.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Qingdao Youth Island are unbeaten at home this season (5W, 8D, 0L, 17:9 GF:GA).
Match Context
- →Dalian Zhixing have lost over half their away matches (3W, 3D, 7L, 15:26 GF:GA).
- →Combined, these teams have seen under 2.5 goals in 54% of their league matches.
🚩 Qingdao Youth Island vs Dalian Zhixing Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4 corners for Qingdao Youth Island and 4.6 for Dalian Zhixing, for an expected total of 8.6. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (64%). Over 8.5: 49% · Over 10.5: 25%.
How Qingdao Youth Island and Dalian Zhixing Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Qingdao Youth Island vs Dalian Zhixing Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Qingdao Youth Islandlast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
Occasional threat
Dalian Zhixinglast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Qingdao Youth Island are in a holding pattern, drawing four of their last five and extending their unbeaten home run to 13 matches. Dalian Zhixing arrive with two consecutive wins and no losses in five, but their away record (3W, 3D, 7L) remains a significant drag on their overall form.
Qingdao Youth Island vs Dalian Zhixing — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +4/5 wins in last 5 — excellent form
- +Defensively solid — 0.4 conceded/game
- +3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: Qingdao Youth Island vs Dalian Zhixing
Qingdao Youth Island have dominated the brief head-to-head, winning all three meetings, including a 3-2 away result earlier this season. However, two of those matches finished with clean sheets for Qingdao, suggesting the matchup can swing between open and cagey.
Qingdao Youth Island vs Dalian Zhixing Head-to-Head History
Last 4 meetings between these sides
3
Qingdao Youth Island wins
0
Draws
1
Dalian Zhixing wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Qingdao Youth Island vs Dalian Zhixing
With odds unavailable, direct value cannot be calculated, but the model's highest conviction is on under 2.5 goals (58% probability) and the draw (36%), both supported by strong season-long rate data. If market odds for the draw or unders are generous, these would warrant close attention for value.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Qingdao Youth Island vs Dalian Zhixing
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available for direct value calculations.
- ⚠️Recent form is steady for both, but small-sample volatility remains.
- ⚠️Lineups are not yet released; late injuries or rotations could affect the goal environment.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Qingdao Youth Island 1–1 Dalian ZhixingA 1-1 draw is the statistical baseline, driven by Qingdao Youth Island's unbeaten home record (5W, 8D, 0L) and Dalian Zhixing's tendency to concede heavily on the road. The main risk to this outcome is Dalian's improved defensive numbers in recent weeks, which could tip the balance towards a low-scoring home win.
Qingdao Youth Island vs Dalian Zhixing: Common Questions
Who will win Qingdao Youth Island vs Dalian Zhixing?
The probabilities are closely matched: 36% for a home win, 36% for a draw, and 28% for an away win. Qingdao Youth Island's unbeaten home record and Dalian Zhixing's poor away form make a draw the most likely result.
Will there be over or under 2.5 goals in Qingdao Youth Island vs Dalian Zhixing?
Under 2.5 goals is more probable, with a 58% chance according to the model. Both teams average just over a goal scored and conceded per game, and Qingdao Youth Island have seen under 2.5 in 65% of their matches.
Are both teams likely to score in Qingdao Youth Island vs Dalian Zhixing?
Both teams to score is rated at 48%, with a slight edge to 'no' at 52%. Qingdao Youth Island have kept three clean sheets in their last five, while Dalian Zhixing have failed to score in none of their last five.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Qingdao Youth Island vs Dalian Zhixing: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 4 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.
More Qingdao Youth Island vs Dalian Zhixing Resources
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Model Accuracy
Track record & verified results