Radomiak Radom vs Motor Lublin Predictions
Ekstraklasa · Poland
Radomiak Radom
Full Time
2 - 3
AI predicted 1 - 1
Motor Lublin
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Draw
@ 3.4(+16% edge)
Match Result
8.2/10Last-Gasp Winner Seals 3-2 Triumph for Motor Lublin Over Radomiak Radom
Motor Lublin staged a dramatic late comeback to edge Radomiak Radom 3-2 at Stadion Radomiaka Radom in a pulsating Ekstraklasa encounter. Despite trailing at halftime, the visitors surged ahead in the second half, only to be pegged back before snatching victory with a stoppage-time goal. Radomiak Radom opened the scoring in the 24th minute and looked set to weather the storm, but Motor Lublin's relentless pressure—reflected in their 22 shots and 55% possession—eventually paid dividends. The hosts briefly restored parity at 2-2 in the 80th minute, but Motor Lublin’s persistence was rewarded with a decisive strike in the dying moments, capping a thrilling five-goal contest.
💀 AI Prediction Report
DOWN BADPredicted
1 - 1
Actual
2 - 3
💰 Bet Results0/1 hit
Key Moments
24' — Goal
Radomiak Radom take the lead, capitalizing on an early chance.
53' — Goal
Motor Lublin equalize, shifting momentum in their favor.
70' — Goal
Motor Lublin go ahead for the first time, completing their turnaround.
80' — Goal
Radomiak Radom level the score at 2-2, setting up a tense finale.
90' — Goal
Motor Lublin snatch a last-minute winner to seal all three points.
Radomiak Radom
Radomiak Radom started brightly, converting one of their few early chances to take a first-half lead. However, they struggled to impose themselves as the match wore on, managing just 6 shots (2 on target) and conceding the lion’s share of possession. Despite a spirited comeback to level at 2-2 late on, lapses in concentration and defensive frailties ultimately cost them. The hosts’ 4-2-3-1 formation provided some attacking impetus, but they were largely forced onto the back foot by Motor Lublin’s aggressive play. Two yellow cards and 14 fouls reflected their efforts to disrupt the visitors, but ultimately they could not withstand the late onslaught.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Motor Lublin
Motor Lublin delivered a commanding away performance, dictating the tempo with 55% possession and peppering the Radomiak goal with 22 shots, 11 of which were on target. Their relentless attacking intent paid off with three second-half goals, including a dramatic winner in the final minute. Operating in a 4-1-4-1 formation, Motor Lublin’s midfield dominated proceedings, and their ability to sustain pressure was key. While five yellow cards and 16 fouls highlighted their combative approach, their attacking verve and late-game composure ultimately secured a deserved victory.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Radomiak Radom lined up in a 4-2-3-1, looking to stay compact and hit on the break. Their double pivot shielded the defense but struggled to contain Motor Lublin’s fluid midfield, especially as the visitors grew in confidence. Radomiak’s attacking trio behind Gouré had fleeting moments but were largely isolated due to lack of possession. Motor Lublin’s 4-1-4-1 allowed them to control the midfield, with Y. Bourhane anchoring and freeing up Rony Lopes and his fellow attackers to press high and recycle possession. Their width and ability to create overloads led to a barrage of chances, reflected in their 5 corners and 22 shots. Substitutions (not specified in the data) likely injected fresh legs, helping maintain intensity until the final whistle.
Turning Point
The stoppage-time winner in the 90th minute, which broke the 2-2 deadlock and sealed victory for Motor Lublin.
Man of the Match
Rony Lopes
Instrumental in midfield, orchestrated attacks, provided an assist, and drove Motor Lublin’s comeback.
Radomiak Radom vs Motor Lublin: Match Preview
Radomiak Radom and Motor Lublin enter this fixture separated by just two points near the foot of the Ekstraklasa table, with both sides desperate to halt poor starts—Radomiak have lost five of nine, while Motor have just one win and sit 16th. Both teams have been short on confidence, with Radomiak's only recent highlight a lopsided friendly win, and Motor's last five league matches yielding just two points.
Statistically, neither side has found a reliable attacking formula: Radomiak average only 0.78 goals per game in the league, while Motor Lublin manage a slightly better 1.0. Defensive frailty is a shared theme—Radomiak have conceded 20 in nine, and Motor 15. The home side's average of 5.2 corners per match in their last five is offset by Motor's lower 3.4, suggesting set-piece opportunities may be limited. Both have managed just two clean sheets in their last five league matches, and BTTS has landed in only two of those games for each side.
Given the convergence of weak attacking output and leaky defences, the model expects a low-scoring, attritional contest with neither side likely to dominate. The most probable outcome is a draw, with the 1-1 scoreline best matching the underlying rates. Margins are slim, and a single defensive lapse or set-piece could swing the result.
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Expected goals · model says 1.30
Expected goals · model says 1.20
Over 2.5 Goals
46%
BTTS: Yes
51%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-0 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Radomiak Radom vs Motor Lublin Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Radomiak Radom vs Motor Lublin that most previews miss.
- 1Radomiak have failed to score in 44% of their league matches this season, but have scored in four of five home games.
- 2Motor Lublin's away matches have averaged 3.25 total goals, but they've only managed five goals in four away trips.
- 3Across the last eight H2H meetings, only once has either side won by more than a single goal.
Who do you think wins: Radomiak Radom vs Motor Lublin?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Radomiak Radom vs Motor Lublin(1)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Draw@ 3.46
The model assigns a 34% probability to the draw, while the market implies just 29.4%, creating a notable value edge. Both teams have drawn three of their last eight H2H meetings and neither side has a clear attacking edge based on season scoring rates.
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More Ekstraklasa Predictions
The Case For This Radomiak Radom vs Motor Lublin Prediction
This fixture profiles as a low-margin contest between two sides struggling for attacking consistency and defensive reliability, with both Radomiak Radom and Motor Lublin conceding over 1.6 goals per game this season. The underlying rates point towards a cagey affair, with little to separate the teams in either home or away splits.
Key Factors at a Glance
Match Context
- →Radomiak have averaged just 0.78 goals per league game, the lowest in the division.
- →Motor Lublin have failed to win away, but have scored in 75% of their away matches.
- →Head-to-head: 3 of the last 5 meetings have ended level, including both league clashes last season.
🚩 Radomiak Radom vs Motor Lublin Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 6.4 corners for Radomiak Radom and 4.8 for Motor Lublin, for an expected total of 11.2. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (68%). Over 8.5: 79% · Over 10.5: 56%.
How Radomiak Radom and Motor Lublin Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Radomiak Radom vs Motor Lublin Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Radomiak Radomlast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Motor Lublinlast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Radomiak Radom have struggled for league results, losing three of their last five and conceding heavily, though they did notch a morale-boosting friendly win. Motor Lublin are winless in their last five league outings, with two draws and three defeats, and have failed to score in two of those games. Both sides have only managed two clean sheets in their last five competitive matches.
Radomiak Radom vs Motor Lublin — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Prolific attack — 2.0 goals/game (last 5)
- +Over 2.5 goals in 70% of games this season
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Leaky defence — 2.4 conceded/game
What History Says: Radomiak Radom vs Motor Lublin
The recent head-to-head record is finely balanced: Motor Lublin have four wins from the last eight, but three of the last five have ended in draws, including both league meetings last season (1-1 and 2-2). Only one of the last eight encounters was settled by more than a single goal.
Radomiak Radom vs Motor Lublin Head-to-Head History
Last 9 meetings between these sides
1
Radomiak Radom wins
3
Draws
5
Motor Lublin wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Radomiak Radom vs Motor Lublin
The main value identified is on the draw at 3.4, where the model's 34% probability is notably higher than the market's 29.4% implied. With both teams' attack and defence rates closely matched and a strong historical trend towards draws in this fixture, this represents the clearest edge. Other markets lack sufficient odds data for robust value assessment.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Radomiak Radom vs Motor Lublin
- ⚠️No injuries reported, but lineups are not available at time of analysis.
- ⚠️Recent friendly result (7-2) for Radomiak is an outlier and not representative of league form.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Radomiak Radom 1–1 Motor LublinThe model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely outcome, underpinned by both teams' season-long scoring rates (Radomiak 0.78, Motor 1.0 per game) and a head-to-head record that heavily favours close contests. The main risk is a defensive collapse from either side, as both have conceded at least 1.6 goals per game, but neither attack has shown enough to fully exploit that weakness.
Radomiak Radom vs Motor Lublin: Common Questions
Who will win Radomiak Radom vs Motor Lublin?
The model gives Radomiak a 36% chance of victory, Motor Lublin a 30% chance, and the draw a 34% chance. With both teams struggling for consistency and a history of close encounters, the draw is marginally favoured.
Will both teams score in Radomiak Radom vs Motor Lublin?
Both teams to score is rated at 49%, with neither side showing consistent attacking output—Radomiak have failed to score in four of nine league matches, while Motor have drawn blanks in two of their last five.
Is there value in betting the draw in Radomiak Radom vs Motor Lublin?
Yes, the draw is priced at 3.4 (implied probability 29.4%) but the model rates it at 34%, creating a value edge of over 15%. Three of the last five H2H meetings have ended level.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Radomiak Radom vs Motor Lublin: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 5 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.