Shenyang Urban vs Qingdao Youth Island Predictions
Super League · China
Shenyang Urban
Full Time
0 - 1
AI predicted 1 - 2
Qingdao Youth Island
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
BTTS: Yes
Match Result
6.8/10Qingdao Youth Island Edge Shenyang Urban in Fiery Clash Decided by Second-Half Strike
Qingdao Youth Island claimed a hard-fought 1-0 away victory over Shenyang Urban at the Olympic Sports Centre Stadium, with the decisive goal arriving in the 73rd minute. The visitors dominated much of the play, boasting 56% possession and firing 16 shots to the hosts' 8, but were made to work for all three points in a match littered with cards and physical battles. Shenyang Urban struggled to create clear chances, registering just a single shot on target, and their task became even more difficult after being reduced to ten men. Qingdao, meanwhile, were relentless in attack and eventually broke the deadlock, capitalizing on their numerical advantage and sustained pressure. Despite a flurry of yellow cards—seven for Qingdao and one plus a red for Shenyang—the visitors held on to secure a valuable win.
😅 AI Prediction Report
CLOSE BUT NO CIGARPredicted
1 - 2
Actual
0 - 1
💰 Bet Results0/3 hit
Key Moments
73' — Goal
Davidson scores the decisive goal for Qingdao Youth Island after sustained pressure.
Late second half' — Red Card
Shenyang Urban reduced to ten men, severely hampering their comeback hopes.
Throughout' — Yellow Cards
Qingdao Youth Island accumulate seven yellow cards in a physical encounter.
Shenyang Urban
Shenyang Urban found themselves on the back foot for much of the contest, struggling to retain possession and create meaningful opportunities. Their 3-4-3 setup failed to generate attacking cohesion, as evidenced by just 1 shot on target from 8 attempts. The home side's discipline faltered late on, with a red card compounding their woes and making a comeback improbable. Despite flashes from attackers like Zang Yifeng and G. Mbenza, Shenyang Urban lacked the cutting edge and composure needed to break down Qingdao's organized backline. Defensively, they were resilient for much of the match, but ultimately succumbed to pressure in the closing stages.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Qingdao Youth Island
Qingdao Youth Island delivered a professional away performance, controlling the tempo with 56% possession and creating the lion's share of chances. Their 5-4-1 formation provided defensive solidity while allowing wing-backs and midfielders to push forward, resulting in 16 shots and 10 corners. Persistent attacking eventually paid off with a crucial goal in the 73rd minute. While their aggression led to a concerning seven yellow cards, Qingdao's ability to maintain pressure and exploit the extra man after Shenyang's red card proved decisive. The backline, marshaled by S. Memišević and Zhang Chengdong, limited Shenyang's opportunities and preserved the clean sheet.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Shenyang Urban set up in a 3-4-3 formation, aiming for width and attacking impetus, but were largely pinned back by Qingdao's possession-based approach. The home side's midfield struggled to build play under pressure, and their forward trio was isolated for long stretches. Qingdao's 5-4-1 system allowed them to control the midfield and exploit the flanks, with wing-backs pushing high and midfielders supporting the lone striker. Set pieces were a key element for Qingdao, who won 10 corners and used their aerial presence to threaten. The tactical shift after Shenyang's red card saw Qingdao further assert control, moving the ball patiently to break down the depleted defense. The visitors' pressing game forced turnovers and limited Shenyang's ability to counter.
Turning Point
Davidson's 73rd-minute goal, coming after sustained Qingdao pressure and following Shenyang Urban's red card, decisively swung the match in the visitors' favor.
Man of the Match
Davidson
Scored the only goal and was Qingdao's main attacking threat throughout the match.
Shenyang Urban vs Qingdao Youth Island: Match Preview
Shenyang Urban enter this contest sitting eighth, having stabilised with a draw and a win in their last two after a heavy defeat to Shandong Luneng. Their home record is positive (5 wins, 4 losses, no draws), but their season-long goal difference remains negative at -5, reflecting persistent defensive issues. Qingdao Youth Island, in fifth, have drawn more than half their matches (10 of 19) and are unbeaten in four of their last five, though they suffered a heavy 0-3 away defeat to Sichuan Jiuniu recently.
From a statistical perspective, this is a meeting of two sides whose matches trend towards goals and both teams scoring. Shenyang Urban average 1.67 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per home game, while Qingdao Youth Island's away games see them concede 2.22 per match. Both sides have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last five, and their last five average goals scored (1.6 each) and conceded (2.0 and 1.6) suggest open play. Notably, both teams see the bulk of their goals after the break (Shenyang Urban: 7 of last 8 goals in the second half).
The model expects a high-probability BTTS outcome and leans slightly towards Qingdao Youth Island, whose away attack has been more effective than their defensive record suggests. Given both teams' defensive volatility and the visitors' draw tendency, a 1-2 away win is the likeliest outcome, but a high-scoring draw is also plausible if neither side can assert control defensively.
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Expected goals · model says 1.40
Expected goals · model says 1.60
Over 2.5 Goals
58%
BTTS: Yes
60%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-2 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Shenyang Urban vs Qingdao Youth Island Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Shenyang Urban vs Qingdao Youth Island that most previews miss.
- 1Qingdao Youth Island have drawn 53% of their league matches (10 of 19), the highest rate in the division.
- 2Shenyang Urban's home fixtures average 3.22 goals per game, with 7 of 9 going over 2.5 goals.
- 3Across the last five matches for both sides, 8 of 10 combined games saw BTTS land.
Who do you think wins: Shenyang Urban vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Shenyang Urban vs Qingdao Youth Island(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
BTTS: Yes
Four of the last five matches for both sides have seen both teams score, and neither has kept a clean sheet in that span. Season-long, Shenyang Urban's matches hit BTTS at a high rate (over 65%).
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Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Shenyang Urban's matches have gone over 2.5 goals in 66.7% of league games, and their home/away goal rates (1.39 scored, 1.67 conceded per game) point to a high-scoring environment.
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Match Result: Draw
Qingdao Youth Island have drawn 10 of 19 league matches, including five away, and the last H2H ended all-square. The model gives the draw a 35% probability.
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More Super League Predictions
The Case For This Shenyang Urban vs Qingdao Youth Island Prediction
Statistically, this fixture sets up as a high-variance contest between two mid-table sides with leaky defences and above-average BTTS rates. Shenyang Urban's home attack (1.67 goals scored per home game) faces a Qingdao Youth Island side that concedes 2.22 per away match, but the visitors' own attack has found the net regularly against similar opposition. Expect a match shaped by defensive frailties and a tendency for both to concede after the break.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Qingdao Youth Island have drawn 10 of 19 league matches and have not kept a clean sheet in their last five.
- →Both teams have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last five league matches.
Match Context
- →Shenyang Urban's home matches average 3.22 total goals (15 for, 14 against in 9 games).
🚩 Shenyang Urban vs Qingdao Youth Island Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.8 corners for Shenyang Urban and 5.6 for Qingdao Youth Island, for an expected total of 10.4. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (59%). Over 8.5: 71% · Over 10.5: 47%.
How Shenyang Urban and Qingdao Youth Island Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Shenyang Urban vs Qingdao Youth Island Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Shenyang Urbanlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Qingdao Youth Islandlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Shenyang Urban have stabilised after a run of defeats, taking four points from their last two matches and scoring four goals in the process. Qingdao Youth Island have been hard to beat, drawing three of their last five and winning two, though their only loss in that stretch was a heavy 0-3 away defeat. Both sides have shown attacking intent but remain vulnerable defensively.
Shenyang Urban vs Qingdao Youth Island — Last 10 Matches
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: Shenyang Urban vs Qingdao Youth Island
Qingdao Youth Island have dominated this matchup historically, winning three of the last five meetings and both previous trips to Shenyang. The most recent encounter ended 1-1, and four of five H2H games have produced at least three goals, suggesting a trend towards open contests.
Shenyang Urban vs Qingdao Youth Island Head-to-Head History
Last 6 meetings between these sides
1
Shenyang Urban wins
1
Draws
4
Qingdao Youth Island wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Shenyang Urban vs Qingdao Youth Island
With no bookmaker odds available, it's not possible to quantify value edges for this fixture. However, the model's probabilities suggest BTTS and over 2.5 goals are more likely than typical market averages, and Qingdao Youth Island's high draw rate makes the draw a more plausible outcome than standard 1X2 pricing might imply.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Shenyang Urban vs Qingdao Youth Island
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available; value edges cannot be calculated.
- ⚠️Small sample size in H2H (5 matches) and last five form.
- ⚠️Both teams have volatile defensive records, increasing scoreline variance.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Shenyang Urban 1–2 Qingdao Youth IslandThe model projects a 2-1 win for Qingdao Youth Island, driven chiefly by Shenyang Urban's porous defence (just 11% clean sheets all season) and the visitors' ability to score away from home. The biggest risk to this forecast is the high draw rate of Qingdao Youth Island, who have shared the points in more than half their matches and could again if neither side tightens up at the back.
Shenyang Urban vs Qingdao Youth Island: Common Questions
Who will win Shenyang Urban vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Qingdao Youth Island are marginal favourites with a 38% win probability, while the draw is close behind at 35%. Shenyang Urban's chance of victory is estimated at 27%, reflecting the visitors' higher league position and draw tendency.
Will both teams score in Shenyang Urban vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Both teams to score is rated at 62% probability, as both have seen BTTS in four of their last five matches and neither has managed a clean sheet in that span.
Is over 2.5 goals likely in Shenyang Urban vs Qingdao Youth Island?
There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals according to the model, with Shenyang Urban's matches going over this line in two-thirds of their league games and both sides averaging over 1.5 goals scored per game in recent form.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Shenyang Urban vs Qingdao Youth Island: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 18 July 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.
More Shenyang Urban vs Qingdao Youth Island Resources
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Qingdao Youth Island Predictions
All Qingdao Youth Island fixtures & tips
Shenyang Urban vs Qingdao Youth Island Stats
Full H2H record & season stats
Super League Predictions
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Model Accuracy
Track record & verified results