Shenyang Urban vs Sichuan Jiuniu Predictions
Super League · China
Shenyang Urban
Full Time
1 - 2
AI predicted 2 - 1
Sichuan Jiuniu
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Match Result
7.8/10Late Moraes Winner Seals Dramatic Comeback for Sichuan Jiuniu in Shenyang
Sichuan Jiuniu staged a thrilling late turnaround to defeat Shenyang Urban 2-1 at the Tiexi Stadium, thanks to a stoppage-time goal from Wesley Moraes. The hosts took an early lead through Ange Kouamé in the 11th minute and looked comfortable for much of the first half, but Sichuan Jiuniu responded with growing authority, equalizing through Albion Ademi on the half-hour mark. The match was a tense, physical affair with both sides creating chances—Shenyang Urban edged possession with 53% and fired 13 shots, but only managed three on target. Sichuan Jiuniu, meanwhile, were more clinical, registering four shots on target from 11 attempts and capitalizing on late momentum. The visitors’ persistence paid off when Moraes found the net in the 90th minute, snatching all three points and silencing the home crowd.
🔥 AI Prediction Report
CERTIFIED WPredicted
2 - 1
Actual
1 - 2
💰 Bet Results1/1 hit
Key Moments
11' — Goal
Ange Kouamé puts Shenyang Urban ahead with a well-taken finish.
31' — Goal
Albion Ademi levels for Sichuan Jiuniu after a spell of pressure.
Various' — Yellow Cards
Sichuan Jiuniu pick up four yellow cards as the match grows tense.
90' — Goal
Wesley Moraes scores a dramatic late winner for Sichuan Jiuniu.
Shenyang Urban
Shenyang Urban started brightly, pressing high and finding an early breakthrough via Ange Kouamé. Their 3-1-4-2 formation allowed them to control midfield for stretches, and they edged possession while creating several promising openings. However, their inability to convert chances and defensive lapses in key moments proved costly. Despite winning more corners (6) and committing to an aggressive pressing game, Shenyang Urban struggled to maintain their early intensity, and ultimately, their lack of cutting edge in front of goal and lapses at the back allowed Sichuan Jiuniu to turn the match around.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Sichuan Jiuniu
Sichuan Jiuniu showed impressive resilience after falling behind early. Their 4-1-4-1 formation provided defensive solidity and allowed them to gradually gain a foothold in the match. The visitors were disciplined, albeit at the cost of four yellow cards, and looked increasingly dangerous on the break as the game wore on. Albion Ademi’s equalizer in the 31st minute was a turning point, and the team’s persistence was rewarded when Wesley Moraes struck in the dying moments. Their ability to stay organized and capitalize on late opportunities proved decisive.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Shenyang Urban’s 3-1-4-2 formation gave them early control in midfield, with Takahiro Kunimoto orchestrating play and the wing-backs pushing high. Their aggressive pressing forced turnovers and allowed them to dominate possession in the opening stages. However, as the match progressed, their defensive trio was increasingly stretched by Sichuan Jiuniu’s quick transitions and wide play. Sichuan Jiuniu’s 4-1-4-1 setup provided a solid defensive base, with Eden Karzev shielding the back four and allowing the midfielders to support attacks. The visitors grew into the game, using their width and pace to exploit spaces behind Shenyang’s wing-backs. The introduction of fresh legs and a late tactical push paid off, culminating in Moraes’ decisive goal.
Turning Point
Wesley Moraes’ 90th-minute goal, which sealed the comeback and broke Shenyang Urban’s resistance.
Man of the Match
Wesley Moraes
His stoppage-time winner capped a resilient team performance and secured all three points for Sichuan Jiuniu.
Shenyang Urban vs Sichuan Jiuniu: Match Preview
Shenyang Urban enter this contest on the back of a 3-1 home win over Shanghai Shenhua, snapping a patchy run that had seen them drop points in three of their previous four. With 24 points from 20 matches, they sit 8th, just one point ahead of Sichuan Jiuniu, who have played two games more and suffered a heavy 0-4 defeat at Beijing Guoan last time out. The hosts have been notably stronger at home, winning 6 of 11 and averaging 1.64 goals per game in Shenyang, while Jiuniu's away form is among the league's worst: 1 win, 1 draw, and 9 defeats, conceding 2.36 per match on their travels.
The statistical matchup highlights a likely open game. Shenyang Urban's last five have averaged 3.4 total goals, with both teams scoring in four of those, and their shot volume (12.6 per game) suggests they will test an away defence that has kept just 2 clean sheets in 11 away. Jiuniu, for their part, average 5 shots on target per game over the last five and have scored in three of their last five, but their defensive frailty is persistent—conceding 41 in 22 overall and 26 in 11 away. Both sides see a majority of their goals in the second half, and set-piece metrics are close (corners: 4.4 vs 4.6 per game), so transitions and late-game phases may be decisive.
The model projects a high-probability goal environment, with over 2.5 goals hitting in nearly 60% of combined season matches. Shenyang Urban's home attack and Jiuniu's away defensive numbers drive a narrow edge for the hosts, but the volatility on both sides—especially Jiuniu's poor away record—means a draw or high-scoring stalemate is also plausible. The likeliest scenario is a 2-1 or 2-2 result, with Shenyang's home advantage and Jiuniu's travel struggles the key statistical levers.
🎮 Prediction Playground
Think the model has it wrong? Nudge each team's expected goals and watch every probability react — then simulate the match and see what happens.
Expected goals · model says 1.70
Expected goals · model says 1.45
Over 2.5 Goals
61%
BTTS: Yes
63%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 2-1 · 1-2
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Shenyang Urban vs Sichuan Jiuniu Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Shenyang Urban vs Sichuan Jiuniu that most previews miss.
- 1Sichuan Jiuniu have conceded 2 or more in 8 of 11 away matches this season (2.36 per game).
- 2Shenyang Urban's home matches have seen over 2.5 goals in 65% of games, compared to the league average of 54%.
- 3Despite historical dominance, Jiuniu have failed to score more than once in any of their last three away league games.
Who do you think wins: Shenyang Urban vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Shenyang Urban vs Sichuan Jiuniu(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Both teams average above 1.35 goals scored per game and concede at least 1.6, with Shenyang Urban's home matches going over 2.5 goals 65% of the time and Sichuan Jiuniu conceding 26 in 11 away games.
Read more ↓
Match Result: Shenyang Urban Win
Shenyang Urban have won 6 of 11 at home, while Sichuan Jiuniu have lost 9 of 11 away and concede 2.36 per away game, giving the hosts a statistical edge despite the poor H2H record.
Read more ↓
More Super League Predictions
The Case For This Shenyang Urban vs Sichuan Jiuniu Prediction
Statistically, this fixture projects as a high-variance contest between two sides with leaky defences and moderate attacking output. Shenyang Urban's home scoring rate (1.64 per game) and Jiuniu's away concession (2.36 per game) point to goals, but neither team keeps clean sheets consistently. The distribution of recent results and shot metrics supports a match with multiple scoring chances and a strong likelihood of both teams finding the net.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Shenyang Urban's home record: 6 wins, 0 draws, 5 losses, 18 scored, 16 conceded.
- →Sichuan Jiuniu's away record: 1 win, 1 draw, 9 losses, 8 scored, 26 conceded.
Match Context
- →Combined season over 2.5 goals rate: 59.8% (Shenyang 65%, Jiuniu 54.55%).
🚩 Shenyang Urban vs Sichuan Jiuniu Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.5 corners for Shenyang Urban and 4.9 for Sichuan Jiuniu, for an expected total of 9.4. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (54%). Over 8.5: 59% · Over 10.5: 34%.
How Shenyang Urban and Sichuan Jiuniu Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Shenyang Urban vs Sichuan Jiuniu Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Shenyang Urbanlast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Regular contributor
Sichuan Jiuniulast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Shenyang Urban's recent form is mixed but trending upwards at home, with two wins in their last three at the Olympic Sports Centre Stadium and 8 goals scored in their last five overall. Sichuan Jiuniu, meanwhile, have alternated wins and losses but continue to struggle on the road, losing four of their last five away and conceding 10 goals in that span.
Shenyang Urban vs Sichuan Jiuniu — Last 10 Matches
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Leaky defence — 2.2 conceded/game
What History Says: Shenyang Urban vs Sichuan Jiuniu
Historically, Sichuan Jiuniu have dominated this fixture, winning six of the last eight meetings and never losing to Shenyang Urban. The most recent encounter ended 1-0 to Jiuniu, but the margin was narrow and the underlying stats suggest a more even contest this time given Shenyang's improved home form.
Shenyang Urban vs Sichuan Jiuniu Head-to-Head History
Last 9 meetings between these sides
0
Shenyang Urban wins
2
Draws
7
Sichuan Jiuniu wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Shenyang Urban vs Sichuan Jiuniu
No bookmaker odds are available for this fixture, so value analysis cannot be completed. However, the model's probabilities highlight over 2.5 goals and a home win as the most statistically justified angles, given the teams' scoring and concession rates.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Shenyang Urban vs Sichuan Jiuniu
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available; value calculations omitted.
- ⚠️Recent H2H is extremely lopsided in favour of Sichuan Jiuniu (6 wins in 8), but underlying team strength is closer this season.
- ⚠️Both teams show volatility in recent form; defensive collapses possible on either side.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Shenyang Urban 2–1 Sichuan JiuniuThe model favours Shenyang Urban to edge a high-scoring contest, projecting a 2-1 home win based on their superior home attack (1.64 goals/game) and Jiuniu's porous away defence (2.36 conceded/game). The strongest data point is Jiuniu's 9 away losses from 11, but the historical H2H—where Shenyang have never beaten Jiuniu—remains a plausible disruptor, especially if the visitors' attack capitalises on Shenyang's own defensive lapses.
Shenyang Urban vs Sichuan Jiuniu: Common Questions
Who will win Shenyang Urban vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Statistically, Shenyang Urban have a 41% chance of victory, with the draw at 30% and Sichuan Jiuniu at 29%. The model leans towards a narrow home win, largely due to Jiuniu's poor away record and Shenyang's more reliable home output.
Will there be over or under 2.5 goals in Shenyang Urban vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
The probability for over 2.5 goals is 62%, supported by both teams' high season averages (Shenyang Urban 65% over 2.5 at home, Jiuniu 54.55% overall). Defensive weaknesses on both sides make a high-scoring match likely.
Is both teams to score a good bet in this match?
Both teams to score is rated at 59% probability. Shenyang Urban have seen BTTS land in 4 of their last 5, and Jiuniu have failed to keep a clean sheet in 9 of 11 away games, so the underlying rates support this outcome.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Shenyang Urban vs Sichuan Jiuniu: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 8 August 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.