Stade Tunisien vs ES Zarzis Predictions
Ligue 1 · Tunisia
Stade Tunisien
AI Predicted Score
1 - 0
ES Zarzis
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under: Under 2.5
Stade Tunisien vs ES Zarzis: Match Preview
Stade Tunisien enter this home fixture sitting mid-table with four points from three games, buoyed by a recent 3-1 away win but still searching for a first home victory. ES Zarzis, two places below in 12th, have lost three straight in all competitions and have yet to earn a point on their travels, scoring just once in two away league games. Both sides are early in their campaigns, but the pressure is already mounting for Zarzis to halt their slide.
Statistically, Stade Tunisien's attack (1.67 goals per game) is the more reliable unit, while Zarzis's output drops to 0.75 per match, with a solitary away goal so far. The hosts' defensive numbers (0.8 conceded per game over the last five) further strengthen their position, especially as Zarzis have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last five outings. Both teams show a tendency for low-scoring matches: the under 2.5 goals rate is 67% for Stade Tunisien and 50% for Zarzis, with a combined BTTS rate of 60% in their last five but little evidence of high-scoring games.
Given these underlying rates and the historical head-to-head pattern (three draws in the last five), the model expects a tight encounter. Stade Tunisien's superior scoring and defensive record at home, coupled with Zarzis's travel woes, make a narrow home win the likeliest outcome, though a low-scoring draw remains a significant risk in this goal-shy environment.
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Expected goals · model says 1.20
Expected goals · model says 0.70
Over 2.5 Goals
30%
BTTS: Yes
35%
Likely Scores
1-0 · 0-0 · 1-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Stade Tunisien vs ES Zarzis Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Stade Tunisien vs ES Zarzis that most previews miss.
- 1ES Zarzis have failed to score in three of their last five meetings with Stade Tunisien.
- 2Stade Tunisien's last five matches average exactly 2.0 goals per game, with only one exceeding two goals.
- 3Both teams have scored more goals in the second half than the first across their last five games (Stade Tunisien: 4 second half, 2 first half; Zarzis: 3 second half, 2 first half).
Who do you think wins: Stade Tunisien vs ES Zarzis?
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Where the Model Sees Value: Stade Tunisien vs ES Zarzis(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Stade Tunisien Win
Stade Tunisien's underlying rates (1.67 scored, 1.33 conceded per game) and ES Zarzis's away struggles (0 goals from open play in two league away games) combine for a 47% home win probability, with no major injuries or market odds to shift the baseline.
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Over/Under: Under 2.5
Both teams trend under: ES Zarzis average 0.75 scored, 1.25 conceded per game, with 68% model probability for under 2.5 goals, and only one of their last four league matches going over.
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More Ligue 1 Predictions
The Case For This Stade Tunisien vs ES Zarzis Prediction
This fixture matches two sides with modest early-season output, but Stade Tunisien's home baseline and Zarzis's away inefficacy tilt the numbers. The model expects a low-scoring contest, with the hosts more likely to edge it by virtue of their superior scoring rate and defensive solidity at home.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Stade Tunisien average 1.67 goals scored per game this season, compared to ES Zarzis's 0.75.
Defence
- →ES Zarzis have lost both away league games, scoring just once (a late goal) and conceding three.
- →Stade Tunisien's only home match ended 1-1, but their defensive record (0.8 conceded per game over last five) is stronger than Zarzis's attack.
How Stade Tunisien and ES Zarzis Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Stade Tunisien vs ES Zarzis Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Stade Tunisienlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
ES Zarzislast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Stade Tunisien have taken four points from their first three league matches, highlighted by a 3-1 away win last time out, and are unbeaten at home so far. ES Zarzis have lost three straight in all competitions and have yet to score more than once in any league game, with two away defeats from two. Momentum favours the hosts, while Zarzis are searching for answers at both ends.
Stade Tunisien vs ES Zarzis — Last 4 Matches
Strengths
- +Over 2.5 goals in 66.67% of games this season
Concerns
- −4/5 losses in last 5 — poor form
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: Stade Tunisien vs ES Zarzis
The last ten meetings are evenly split (three wins each, four draws), but recent history favours Stade Tunisien, who have not lost to Zarzis in the last four encounters. Three of the last five have ended level, and Zarzis have failed to score in three of those, underlining the fixture's low-scoring tendency.
Stade Tunisien vs ES Zarzis Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
3
Stade Tunisien wins
4
Draws
3
ES Zarzis wins
Things to Watch: Stade Tunisien vs ES Zarzis
- ⚠️No shots, corners, or possession data available for either side — attacking quality is inferred from goals only.
- ⚠️Bookmaker odds are missing, so value analysis is limited to model probabilities.
- ⚠️Small sample sizes (3-4 league games each) increase volatility in goal and win probabilities.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Stade Tunisien 1–0 ES ZarzisThe model projects a 1-0 home win, driven by Stade Tunisien's higher scoring rate and Zarzis's ongoing away struggles. The strongest data point is Zarzis's 0.5 goals per away league game, suggesting limited threat. The main risk is a low-event draw, as both teams have shown a tendency to cancel each other out in recent head-to-heads.
Stade Tunisien vs ES Zarzis: Common Questions
Who will win Stade Tunisien vs ES Zarzis?
Stade Tunisien are modelled with a 47% probability of winning, compared to 18% for ES Zarzis and 35% for the draw. The home side's stronger attack and Zarzis's poor away form underpin this edge.
Will there be over or under 2.5 goals in Stade Tunisien vs ES Zarzis?
The model gives a 68% probability to under 2.5 goals, with both teams averaging fewer than 2.5 total goals per game this season and a history of low-scoring head-to-head matches.
Are both teams likely to score in Stade Tunisien vs ES Zarzis?
Both teams to score is rated at just 34%, reflecting Zarzis's struggles in attack (0.75 goals per game) and Stade Tunisien's solid defensive numbers at home.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Stade Tunisien vs ES Zarzis: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 10 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.