Vasteras SK FK vs Mjallby AIF Predictions
Allsvenskan · Sweden
Vasteras SK FK
Full Time
1 - 0
AI predicted 1 - 1
Mjallby AIF
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Match Result
6.9/10Vasteras Edge Mjallby in Tight Allsvenskan Contest at Hitachi Energy Arena
Vasteras SK FK claimed a hard-fought 1-0 victory over Mjallby AIF at the Hitachi Energy Arena, thanks to a crucial first-half goal in the 20th minute. The hosts controlled the majority of possession (52%) and peppered the Mjallby goal with 22 shots, nine of which were on target, but were unable to extend their lead despite sustained pressure. Mjallby, lining up in a 4-1-4-1, struggled to break through Vasteras' resolute back three, managing only three shots on target from 11 attempts. The match was a physical affair, with both sides combining for 40 fouls and four yellow cards. Vasteras' attacking trio and dynamic midfield dictated much of the play, while Mjallby relied on counterattacks and set pieces, earning five corners but ultimately failing to find the net. The result keeps Vasteras' momentum alive as the season enters its decisive phase.
💪 AI Prediction Report
DECENT HITPredicted
1 - 1
Actual
1 - 0
💰 Bet Results1/2 hit
Key Moments
20' — Goal
A. Taonsa finishes a flowing Vasteras move to put the hosts 1-0 up.
35' — Yellow Card
Mjallby's T. Pettersson booked for a tactical foul stopping a Vasteras counter.
52' — Yellow Card
J. Gustavsson (Mjallby) receives a yellow for a late challenge in midfield.
65' — Yellow Card
Villiam Granath (Mjallby) cautioned as Vasteras threaten on the break.
78' — Yellow Card
S. Gefvert (Vasteras) goes into the book for a clumsy tackle.
Vasteras SK FK
Vasteras SK FK delivered a confident performance, asserting themselves early and maintaining attacking intent throughout. Their 3-4-3 formation allowed wing-backs to push high, creating overloads and generating 22 shots, nine of which tested the Mjallby keeper. The midfield duo of M. Hellisdal and M. Diagne provided balance, while the back three remained organized under pressure. Despite only converting once, Vasteras' relentless pressing and fluid front line kept Mjallby pinned back for long stretches. The single yellow card reflected a disciplined defensive display, and the hosts saw out the narrow lead with composure.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Mjallby AIF
Mjallby AIF set up in a compact 4-1-4-1, aiming to frustrate Vasteras and strike on the break. While they managed to keep the deficit to a single goal, their attacking play lacked bite, with just three shots on target from 11 attempts. The midfield struggled to retain possession under Vasteras' press, and the forwards were largely isolated. Defensively, Mjallby worked hard, with three players booked as they battled to contain Vasteras' wide threats. Their best opportunities came from set pieces, but they were unable to capitalize, leaving them empty-handed despite a spirited effort.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Vasteras' 3-4-3 system enabled them to dominate the flanks, with wing-backs S. Gefvert and J. Karlsson providing width and stretching Mjallby's defensive line. The midfield pairing of Hellisdal and Diagne offered both protection and distribution, allowing the front three to interchange and create chances. Their pressing forced Mjallby into errors, limiting the visitors' ability to build from the back. Mjallby, meanwhile, sat deep in their 4-1-4-1, looking to absorb pressure and spring counters, but struggled to transition effectively. Their reliance on set pieces was evident, but Vasteras defended corners well. Substitutions from both sides did little to alter the tactical balance, with Vasteras managing the closing stages confidently.
Turning Point
A. Taonsa's 20th-minute goal set the tone, forcing Mjallby to chase the game and allowing Vasteras to dictate proceedings.
Man of the Match
A. Taonsa
Scored the match-winning goal and led the line with energy and movement throughout.
Vasteras SK FK vs Mjallby AIF: Match Preview
Vasteras SK FK enter this fixture sitting sixth in the Allsvenskan, with a season record of 10 wins, 5 draws, and 8 losses, and a goal difference of -2. Their home form is steady but unspectacular, with 4 wins and 4 draws from 11 matches. Mjallby AIF, currently 12th, have struggled for wins but have been notably difficult to beat away, drawing 6 of 11 on the road and conceding 20 goals in those matches. Both sides are coming off patchy form, with Vasteras losing their last two in all competitions and Mjallby winless in their last five league games.
Statistically, the matchup is shaped by moderate attacking output and leaky defences. Vasteras average 1.48 goals for and 1.57 against per game, while Mjallby post 1.22 for and 1.70 against. Both teams have a below-average clean sheet rate (Vasteras 30%, Mjallby 17%) and neither has been prolific in recent weeks: Vasteras have scored just 6 in their last 5 league games, Mjallby only 3. The BTTS rate is middling (Vasteras 1 in last 5, Mjallby 3 in last 5), and both sides see more second-half than first-half goals, suggesting a cautious opening period.
Given these rates, the model expects a tight contest with limited clear-cut chances. The most probable outcome is a draw, with a 1-1 scoreline the statistical mode. Both teams' tendency to draw and their similar scoring/conceding profiles make a split of the points the likeliest scenario, with little evidence to support a high-scoring affair or a runaway winner.
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Expected goals · model says 1.35
Expected goals · model says 1.10
Over 2.5 Goals
44%
BTTS: Yes
49%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-0 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Vasteras SK FK vs Mjallby AIF Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Vasteras SK FK vs Mjallby AIF that most previews miss.
- 1Mjallby have drawn 6 of 11 away league matches this season, the joint-highest away draw rate in the division.
- 2Vasteras have scored only once in the first half across their last 5 league matches, but netted 5 times after the break.
- 3The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced just 5 total goals, with two ending either 1-1 or 0-0.
Who do you think wins: Vasteras SK FK vs Mjallby AIF?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Vasteras SK FK vs Mjallby AIF(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Correct Score: 1–1
The 1-1 scoreline is supported by both teams' season-long scoring/conceding rates (Vasteras: 1.48 for, 1.57 against; Mjallby: 1.22 for, 1.70 against), moderate BTTS probability (53%), and a high draw rate for Mjallby away (6 draws in 11 away games).
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Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Both teams are below league average for over 2.5 goals (Vasteras 52%, Mjallby 48%), and recent form points to low event games (Vasteras 1.2 scored, 0.8 conceded last 5; Mjallby 0.6 scored, 1.4 conceded).
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More Allsvenskan Predictions
The Case For This Vasteras SK FK vs Mjallby AIF Prediction
This fixture projects as a low-to-moderate scoring contest between two sides with similar defensive frailties but limited attacking output, especially recently. Vasteras' home record is solid but not dominant (4W, 4D, 3L, 17:13), while Mjallby have been tough to beat on the road, drawing more than half their away matches. The most likely scenario is a closely fought draw, with neither attack likely to overwhelm the other's defence.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Vasteras average 1.48 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game across the season.
- →Mjallby have drawn 6 of 11 away league matches and failed to keep a clean sheet in their last 5.
- →Both teams have a sub-20% clean sheet rate in their respective home/away splits.
🚩 Vasteras SK FK vs Mjallby AIF Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.4 corners for Vasteras SK FK and 5.4 for Mjallby AIF, for an expected total of 9.8. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (52%). Over 8.5: 65% · Over 10.5: 40%.
How Vasteras SK FK and Mjallby AIF Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Vasteras SK FK vs Mjallby AIF Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Vasteras SK FKlast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Mjallby AIFlast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Vasteras have alternated between wins and losses in recent weeks, with their last five league matches yielding two wins and three defeats. Mjallby are on a winless run, drawing three and losing two of their last five league games, and have struggled for goals in that stretch. Both sides are defensively vulnerable, but neither is in strong attacking form coming into this fixture.
Vasteras SK FK vs Mjallby AIF — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Defensively solid — 0.6 conceded/game
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Struggling to score — 0.6 goals/game
What History Says: Vasteras SK FK vs Mjallby AIF
The last three meetings between these sides have been tightly contested, with a 0-0 draw in July and only one match in the last six producing more than three goals. Mjallby have a slight edge historically, but recent encounters have been low scoring and evenly balanced.
Vasteras SK FK vs Mjallby AIF Head-to-Head History
Last 7 meetings between these sides
2
Vasteras SK FK wins
2
Draws
3
Mjallby AIF wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Vasteras SK FK vs Mjallby AIF
No bookmaker odds are available at the time of analysis, so value opportunities cannot be formally identified. The model's probabilities suggest the draw and under 2.5 goals are the most statistically justified outcomes, and any odds offering above 2.10 for under 2.5 or above 3.10 for the draw would likely represent value.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Vasteras SK FK vs Mjallby AIF
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available at time of analysis, so value edges cannot be calculated.
- ⚠️Recent form for both sides includes friendlies and cup games, which may distort true league performance.
- ⚠️Neither side has significant injury absences, but potential late changes to starting lineups are unknown.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Vasteras SK FK 1–1 Mjallby AIFA 1-1 draw is the likeliest outcome, driven by both teams' season-long scoring and conceding rates and Mjallby's high away draw frequency. The main risk to this forecast is a defensive lapse from either side, as both average over 1.5 goals conceded per game, which could tip the balance if one attack finds rhythm.
Vasteras SK FK vs Mjallby AIF: Common Questions
Who will win Vasteras SK FK vs Mjallby AIF?
The model gives Vasteras a 39% chance of victory, Mjallby a 25% chance, and a draw 36%. Both teams have similar scoring and conceding rates, and Mjallby have drawn more than half their away games, so a draw is the most probable outcome.
Will both teams score in Vasteras vs Mjallby?
There is a 53% probability of both teams scoring, based on their BTTS rates and defensive records. Vasteras have seen BTTS in 1 of their last 5, Mjallby in 3 of their last 5, and both concede over 1.5 goals per game on average.
Is under 2.5 goals likely in this match?
Under 2.5 goals is slightly favoured at 52%, with both teams averaging around 2.7 total goals per game across the season and recent head-to-heads tending to be low scoring.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Vasteras SK FK vs Mjallby AIF: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 11 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.