Wisla Plock vs Radomiak Radom Predictions
Ekstraklasa · Poland
Wisla Plock
Full Time
1 - 0
AI predicted 2 - 1
Radomiak Radom
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Wisla Plock Win
Match Result
6.2/10Wisla Plock Edge Radomiak Radom in Tight Ekstraklasa Contest
Wisla Plock claimed a narrow 1-0 victory over Radomiak Radom at Orlen Arena, making the most of their limited chances in a match dominated by the visitors in terms of possession and shots. The decisive moment arrived early, with Wisla Plock striking in the 15th minute and then digging deep to protect their lead for the remainder of the game. Radomiak Radom, despite controlling 54% of the ball and firing 16 shots, were unable to break through a resolute home defence, managing just a single effort on target. The hosts, set up in a 3-4-3 formation, were forced to withstand long spells of pressure, conceding six corners and committing 18 fouls as they sought to disrupt Radomiak’s rhythm. Both sides saw a player booked, but the match was largely devoid of clear-cut chances, with defences on top. Ultimately, Wisla Plock’s early goal and disciplined defensive display proved enough to secure all three points.
😅 AI Prediction Report
CLOSE BUT NO CIGARPredicted
2 - 1
Actual
1 - 0
💰 Bet Results1/3 hit
Key Moments
15' — Goal
Ł. Sekulski scores for Wisla Plock, finishing off a rare early attack.
34' — Yellow Card
Wisla Plock player booked as the hosts look to disrupt Radomiak's rhythm.
56' — Yellow Card
Radomiak Radom receive a yellow card after a tactical foul in midfield.
70' — Corner
Radomiak Radom force their sixth corner, but Wisla Plock clear the danger.
83' — Save
R. Leszczyński makes a crucial stop to deny Radomiak's only shot on target.
Wisla Plock
Wisla Plock started brightly and capitalized on their first real opportunity to take a 1-0 lead in the 15th minute. From there, they shifted into a more defensive posture, relying on their back three and midfield to absorb Radomiak Radom's pressure. With just five shots and only one on target, their attacking threat was minimal after the opener, but their tactical discipline and work rate were decisive in preserving the result.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Radomiak Radom
Radomiak Radom controlled the tempo for much of the match, enjoying the majority of possession (54%) and generating 16 shots. However, their efforts were largely speculative, with only one shot on target to show for their dominance. The 4-2-3-1 setup allowed them to push numbers forward, but they struggled to break down Wisla Plock's compact defence. Despite winning six corners and committing fewer fouls, their lack of cutting edge in the final third proved costly.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Wisla Plock set up in a 3-4-3, prioritizing defensive solidity and compactness after taking the lead. Their wing-backs dropped deep, forming a back five at times to repel Radomiak's advances. The midfield duo focused on screening the defence, while the front three were largely isolated, tasked with pressing and counter-attacking when possible. Radomiak Radom's 4-2-3-1 allowed them to dominate possession and push fullbacks high, but they struggled to find space between Wisla Plock's lines. Set pieces offered some hope, but the hosts defended corners robustly and limited Radomiak to speculative efforts from range. Substitutions from both sides did little to alter the tactical balance, with Wisla Plock content to sit deep and Radomiak unable to inject the necessary creativity or pace to unlock the defence. The match ultimately became a test of patience and defensive discipline, with Wisla Plock prevailing.
Turning Point
Ł. Sekulski's goal in the 15th minute gave Wisla Plock a lead to defend and shaped the rest of the match.
Man of the Match
R. Leszczyński
Secured a clean sheet with a key late save and marshaled his defence superbly under sustained pressure.
Wisla Plock vs Radomiak Radom: Match Preview
Wisla Plock enter this fixture 12th in the Ekstraklasa, three points above Radomiak Radom, and with a recent run of LWWDL in the league. Their goal difference remains negative, but home form has stabilised, conceding just three times in three home games. Radomiak, sitting 15th, have lost three of their last five league matches and have yet to win away, shipping 13 goals in four away outings.
Statistically, the matchup is defined by Radomiak's defensive struggles on the road—an average of 3.25 goals conceded per away game—against a Wisla Plock attack that has scored at least twice in three of their last five competitive fixtures. Both teams' over 2.5 goal rates are above 55% for the season, and Radomiak's away matches average 3.75 goals. However, Wisla Plock's home defence is more robust than their overall record suggests, and Radomiak's attack has managed just two goals in four away league games.
The model expects Wisla Plock to control the tempo, especially in the first half, leveraging their relative defensive solidity at home and Radomiak's tendency to concede early. With both sides showing vulnerability but the home side's rates superior, a 2-1 outcome is the most probable, with the main risk being a low-scoring draw if Wisla Plock's attack stalls.
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Expected goals · model says 1.70
Expected goals · model says 1.15
Over 2.5 Goals
54%
BTTS: Yes
56%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-0 · 2-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Wisla Plock vs Radomiak Radom Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Wisla Plock vs Radomiak Radom that most previews miss.
- 1Radomiak Radom have failed to win any of their last 8 away league matches, conceding 2+ in 7 of those.
- 2Wisla Plock's home league matches average just 2.0 total goals, but their last 5 in all competitions average 3.0.
- 3Four of the last six H2H meetings have seen under 2.5 goals, but both teams' current season rates point higher.
Who do you think wins: Wisla Plock vs Radomiak Radom?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Wisla Plock vs Radomiak Radom(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Wisla Plock Win
Wisla Plock's home xGA is much lower than Radomiak's away xGF, and Radomiak have conceded 13 goals in 4 away league matches (3.25 per game), giving the home side a substantial statistical edge.
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Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Both teams' season over 2.5 goal rates are above 55%, and Radomiak away games average 3.75 goals; the model projects a 56% chance for over 2.5.
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BTTS: Yes
Wisla Plock have seen BTTS in 3 of their last 5, and Radomiak's defence is porous away, but both have also failed to score in recent games, so the probability is just above even.
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More Ekstraklasa Predictions
The Case For This Wisla Plock vs Radomiak Radom Prediction
Wisla Plock's home defensive record and Radomiak Radom's away frailty set the statistical tone for this fixture. The underlying rates point to a moderately high-scoring match, with the home side's attack more consistent than the visitors' patchy output. While neither team is in top-half form, Radomiak's away concession rate is the decisive factor.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Radomiak Radom have conceded 13 goals in 4 away league matches (3.25 per game).
- →Wisla Plock's home matches average just 1 goal conceded per game.
Match Context
- →Both teams' season over 2.5 goal rate exceeds 55%.
🚩 Wisla Plock vs Radomiak Radom Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4 corners for Wisla Plock and 5.4 for Radomiak Radom, for an expected total of 9.4. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (53%). Over 8.5: 60% · Over 10.5: 34%.
How Wisla Plock and Radomiak Radom Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Wisla Plock vs Radomiak Radom Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Wisla Plocklast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Radomiak Radomlast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Wisla Plock have taken 7 points from their last 4 league games, including a 3-1 home win over Cracovia Krakow, but suffered a heavy 0-3 defeat last time out. Radomiak Radom's league form is weaker, with three defeats in their last five and just two goals scored in four away league matches. Both sides have shown attacking intent in friendlies but have struggled for consistency in the league.
Wisla Plock vs Radomiak Radom — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +4/5 wins in last 5 — excellent form
Strengths
- +Prolific attack — 2.0 goals/game (last 5)
Concerns
- −4/5 losses in last 5 — poor form
- −Leaky defence — 2.6 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: Wisla Plock vs Radomiak Radom
The head-to-head record is balanced, with Wisla Plock holding a slight edge (3 wins to 2) and four draws in the last nine meetings. Low-scoring outcomes are common, with five matches finishing 1-1 or 1-0. Only once in the last six league meetings has either side scored more than twice.
Wisla Plock vs Radomiak Radom Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
4
Wisla Plock wins
4
Draws
2
Radomiak Radom wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Wisla Plock vs Radomiak Radom
With bookmaker odds unavailable, value assessment is limited. However, the model's probabilities suggest that any odds implying less than a 45% chance for a Wisla Plock win or less than 50% for over 2.5 goals would represent value, given the underlying rates. If Radomiak are offered at short odds, the data does not justify it.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Wisla Plock vs Radomiak Radom
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available at time of analysis; value assessment is limited.
- ⚠️Recent form for both teams includes friendlies, which may distort short-term averages.
- ⚠️Radomiak's away scoring is very low (0.5 per away game), but their last 5 includes a 7-goal friendly win, skewing averages.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Wisla Plock 2–1 Radomiak RadomThe model projects a 2-1 win for Wisla Plock, primarily due to Radomiak's away defensive record of 3.25 goals conceded per match. The likeliest way this goes wrong is if Wisla Plock's attack underperforms against a deep block, resulting in a low-scoring draw.
Wisla Plock vs Radomiak Radom: Common Questions
Who will win Wisla Plock vs Radomiak Radom?
Wisla Plock are favoured with a 48% probability of victory, compared to 22% for Radomiak Radom and a 30% chance of a draw. The home side's stronger defensive record and Radomiak's away struggles drive this edge.
Will both teams score in Wisla Plock vs Radomiak Radom?
There is a 54% probability of both teams scoring, based on recent BTTS rates and Radomiak's defensive record away from home. However, both sides have failed to score in some recent matches, so this is only marginally above even.
Is over 2.5 goals likely in Wisla Plock vs Radomiak Radom?
The model gives a 56% chance for over 2.5 goals, with both teams' season rates above 55% and Radomiak's away games averaging 3.75 goals per match.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Wisla Plock vs Radomiak Radom: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 12 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.